The Seven Most Influential Things I Read in 2014

IMG_5751Amidst the flurry of year-end recaps, several bloggers did an iteration of “This Most Influential Things I Read This Year.” This is a very interesting question—here’s my take.

Theory U. “Theory U proposes that the quality of the results that we create in any kind of social system is a function of the quality of awareness, attention, or consciousness that the participants in the system operate from.”

Continuous Productivity: New tools and a new way of working for a new era. “Continuous productivity is an era that fosters a seamless integration between consumer and business platforms.“

Davos: Mindfulness, Hotspots, and Sleepwalkers. All the signs are present that mindfulness is reaching the tipping point.

The Re-working of “Work”. “This report analyzes key drivers that will reshape the landscape of work and identifies key work skills needed in the next 10 years.”

Build a change platform, not a change program. How to make change the status quo, not an interruption.

Lost and Found in a Brave New World. At a time when so many feel culturally, organizationally and/or personally “lost,” how can we find our way back to the values and beliefs we hold dear? In the new world, new maps are required. The first step is to realize and admit you’re lost.

The Last Re-Org You’ll Ever Do. Three new approaches to doing business are showing promise (Holacracy, Agile Teams and Self Organizing). Viewed as way out there by some, but, nonetheless, they are happening.

 

 


Weekly Download 15.1

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Here’s a recap of news and notes from around the Web that caught my attention over the past week or so.

The Future Of Jobs: The Onrushing Wave. This article talks about structural shifts that are well underway, including the rise of a service economy and the effects of an aging population and a more mature economy overall. We’re seeing the lowest proportion of U.S. adults participating in workforce since 1978. In addition, manufacturing employment from has declined from 30% in the 1950s to 10% now. Has John Maynard Keynes’s prediction in 1930 of “technological unemployment” come true?

Oculus Rift’s Palmer Luckey: “I brought virtual reality back from the dead.”I hadn’t read much about this company (purchased by Facebook for $2.3 billion in March 2014) until now. What struck me in this interview was that not only was Palmer Luckey lucky, but he also seems like an ordinary, down-to-earth guy. A key point was while his siblings were outside playing, he made pocket money repairing and selling iPhones. The first iPhone was released in 2007. Luckey is now 22. So the math works, but it still makes me feel old. Something I view as a recent development and about the fifth generation of something was the first job of a teenage tech entrepreneur. If you don’t believe that the world is changing fast and being shaped by innovation from a younger generation, hold on. This is moving fast and at a scale and scope that is hard to imagine.

I Don’t Want to be Right delves into the science behind changing our minds. It’s fascinating how they researched the challenge of how we can be both very willing and incredibly stubborn about changing our mind simultaneously.

“When there’s no immediate threat to our understanding of the world, we change our beliefs. It’s when that change contradicts something we’ve long held as important that problems occur.”

Fred Wilson is a very credible venture capitalist and long-time blogger. In sequential posts, he gives a review of 2014 (What Just Happened) and a preview of 2015 (What Is Going to Happen). I like his views of the new tech space. One thing in particular that struck me was his comment that in 2014 (or perhaps earlier) we transitioned from social media (Facebook, Instagram, etc.) to messaging (Snapchat, WhatsApp, etc). I’ve witnessed the phenomenon firsthand with my kids. How will the “instant but ephemeral” new way impact us given the previous “in the cloud forever” model of social media?


Why Technology Still Needs the Human Touch

Last week I had the privilege of attending the ITA 2014 Fall Collaborative in Washington D.C. This meeting was co-located with the Digital CPA Conference and we were privy to some great speakers. One of my favorites was Nicholas Carr, who has written extensively about the intersection of technology and human progress. A favorite breakout session was Marc Teerlink, the Chief Business Strategist for the IBM Watson project. Upon reflection, these two presentations were connected in more ways than I thought.

IBM Watson has moved from R&D to the commercialization phase. IBM is making a major investment ($1B) in this effort that uses cognitive computing to translate data into dollars.

Teerlink provided many examples where this is being applied by early adopters in healthcare, financial services and other areas that fit his framework of “observe, interpret, evaluate and decide.” Essentially, this refers to knowledge work and how to augment our ability to absorb the vast source of data that are available to us. He noted “we don’t have a data problem, we have a filter problem.” By this he meant that we so often feel overwhelmed by the volume and velocity of data that comes at us, but the real issue is that we don’t have a filter mechanism that tells us what is relevant for the situation.

Later, Carr shared his view of the new world of technology we live in. Essentially he stated that the cloud is our data center—a large central utility—much like the power plant of 100 years ago. Local computing (private data centers, local servers) is being displaced just like steam engines and local power plants were in their era. We are rapidly transitioning from the old infrastructure to the new. Our biggest challenge may be rethinking our business and anticipating what it is going to change. A key part of that is understanding where we add value and separating routine activities from innovative, unique and knowledge enhancing skills. One hurdle is integrating deep automation.

Now we’ve come full circle. Deep automation is based upon capabilities such as IBM Watson and highly sophisticated combination of technologies (cloud, mobile, big data, internet of things, social) that come together in ways we are just beginning to realize. For examples, look no further than driverless cars and 3D printing.

In Carr’s recent book The Glass Cage, he warns that there are unintended consequences of automation. At the most basic level, there are two categories:

  • First, complacency. We become complacent because we trust technology to work flawlessly. We substitute the computer for our thinking.
  • Secondly, accuracy. We believe anything presented to us through the pane of glass. Even though if it was on paper or spoken to us we might question it. The fact that it is from a computer and presented dispassionately, we believe it.

Here is a vivid example of the dual pitfalls of complacency and accuracy. A Seattle bus driver flawlessly executed the route presented to him by his GPS. He was complacent and didn’t give the route a thought. Even when presented with road signs indicating low bridge ahead, it didn’t register caution. The GPS (computer) presented the data and he proceeded despite additional signs, the GPS continued the route and his bus with 12’ clearance crashed into the 9’ clearance bridge. The accuracy of the GPS was absent an input (vehicle height) and constraint (bridge height). He trusted its accuracy implicitly and followed the bias that since it’s automated, it must be accurate.

077 Seattle Bus Image

Photo: Dan DeLong/Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Our challenge, then, is to focus our attention, stay alert and use these powerful tools to augment our abilities. As Marc Teerlink stated, “Computers don’t ‘predict.’ they present.” They present information and knowledge based upon rich sources of data. But they don’t have the intuition (tacit knowledge) that could be codified into a set of explicit rules. When we confuse this simple rule, we fall victim to complacency and an accuracy bias that is dangerous.

Our relationship with technology is far from perfect, but useful nonetheless. I much prefer the world where we can use sophisticated technology and allow the override by the highly trained professional when required.

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